Hurricane forecasters watching 3 weather systems in tropics

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are watching three patches of rough weather, including one in the Gulf of Mexico and another in the Caribbean that is likely to strengthen into a tropical system.

The weather in the Gulf was the closest of the three to Florida as of Monday afternoon, but posed no threat to the state. Forecasters described it as “disorganized showers and thunderstorms” over the north-central Gulf. The weather was expected to move west-southwest at about 10 mph and approach southern Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next several days.

In their 2 p.m. advisory Monday, forecasters were giving this weather a slim chance of strengthening into a tropical system -- just a 10 percent chance by Wednesday afternoon and a 20 percent chance by Saturday afternoon.

Forecasters were much more confident Monday that a second system, this one about 700 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, would strengthen into a tropical system. The chances of tropical formation by Wednesday was 70 percent; by Saturday, it is 90 percent, forecasters said.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday,” the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. advisory Monday.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was investigating the weather on Monday afternoon and has “found winds to tropical storm force,” the advisory said.

Forecasters said heavy rain is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeast coast of Venezuela by Tuesday night.

A third system was located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday afternoon and was “producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the 2 p.m. advisory said.

Forecasters said the system has no chance of strengthening into a tropical system by Wednesday and only a 20 percent of it happening by Saturday.

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