Examining the reasons Bucs could flourish or fade in 2022

Let the countdown commence. We’re T-minus two weeks from the 47th training camp in Bucs history.

And T-minus three weeks from the 45th birthday of the franchise’s quarterback.

Middle-age milestones aside, the Bucs appear solid favorites to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons. Sportsbook BetMGM has improved the team’s odds of winning Super Bowl 57 to plus-750, second only to the Bills (plus-650).

And while some factors seem to fortify those projections, others could de-rail them. With the first formal workout (July 27) looming, we break down the four main reasons folks should be optimistic of Tom Brady and Co. making it to Glendale (site of the Super Bowl), and four reasons they could fall short.

Four reasons to bet on the Bucs

1. Tom Brady/Todd Bowles chemistry

Flush the nonsensical narrative about Brady orchestrating a palace coup to force out Bruce Arians and promote Bowles. But what can’t be discarded is the fact Bowles’ offensive approach and midnight-oil work ethic mesh better with his 45-year-old quarterback, who has been surrounded by old-school grinders (i.e. Lloyd Carr, Bill Belichick) all his life. At this stage of his career, Brady’s probably not interested in dropping back 40 times a game, and his new coach is a proven run proponent. In each of Bowles’ four seasons as Jets coach, the team averaged at least 100 rushing yards a game, twice ranking in the league’s top 12.

2. Weakness of NFC South

The Bucs remain overwhelming favorites to win back-to-back South titles for the first time ever, with good reason. The Falcons, who likely will start Marcus Mariota at quarterback, remain in transition. Meantime, the Saints have a new coach (former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen) and hit-or-miss quarterback (Jameis Winston) coming off an ACL injury. And whomever starts the most games behind center for Carolina (Baker Mayfield? Sam Darnold? Matt Corral?) remains anyone’s guess.

3. Improved special teams

The Bucs made a concerted effort through the draft to improve on special teams, which was statistically abysmal in several areas last season. Tampa Bay finished 26th in the NFL in average kick-return yardage (19.7) and 29th in punt-return yardage (7.1). Additionally, the Bucs finished 31st in net punting average (39.0) and were one of only three teams not to convert a field goal longer than 48 yards. The team drafted Georgia punter Jake Camarda in the fourth round, and Bowles has made it clear that former Lou Groza Award winner Jose Borregales will push incumbent Ryan Succop at place-kicker. Meantime, a handful of rookie speedsters (cornerback Zyon McCollum, receiver Deven Thompkins, possibly tailback Rachaad White) could make the return competition interesting.

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4. The return of Gronk

Yeah, we’re calling Rob Gronkowski, who announced his retirement via social media on June 21, to ultimately come off the couch. Bolstering our belief is the fact those close to Gronk (including his own agent) predict the same thing. Face it, many veterans dread training camp, and Gronkowski, 33, likely wanted no part of it. But if he remains in reasonable shape and the Bucs’ tight-end spot remains in flux, we could envision a glorious Gronk return at some point this autumn.

Four reasons to back off the Bucs

1. Schedule

The Bucs open with a four-game gauntlet (at Cowboys, at Saints, home vs. Packers and Chiefs) that barely slacks off from there. Should they stumble badly out of the gate, the inevitable questions about Brady’s age, his supporting cast and Bowles’ acumen as a head coach will converge to create a potentially massive distraction. Looking at it objectively and rationally, a 2-2 start would be solid; a 3-1 start would be spectacular. But again, it gets no easier from there. The October slate includes the Chiefs, Steelers (away) and Ravens. December opens with the Saints, 49ers (away) and Bengals.

2. Retirements

The handful of retirements announced in the offseason ranged from stunning (Ali Marpet) to surreal (Arians). The common denominator: All were taxing to the 2022 roster. Gronk’s departure (for now) leaves the Bucs with serious depth issues at tight end. Marpet was grossly unheralded (one Pro Bowl in seven seasons) and critical in thwarting the interior pass rush on Brady. While Arians delegated liberally, his decades of NFL insight were invaluable on game days. Don’t think that won’t be missed.

3. Injuries

Naturally, this is an annual concern, magnified by the outbreak suffered down the stretch last season. We still have no timetable on the return of Chris Godwin (knee surgery), arguably Brady’s most versatile target; and 32-year-old inside linebacker Lavonte David still is rehabbing a Lisfranc injury. Meantime, right tackle Tristan Wirfs’ ankle injury in the postseason last January showed just how debilitating one loss can be to that unit.

4. Law of diminishing returns

We cite Rocky Balboa here: Time is undefeated. Brady can continue with his revolutionary training methods, meticulous diet and general defiance of the natural order. At some point, he’s going to regress. Will it be this season? So far, there is zero evidence of that. He’s coming off one of his most prolific seasons ever (5,316 passing yards, 43 touchdowns) and was spinning the ball as crisply as ever during the recent mandatory minicamp. But no one — not even the NFL’s resident freak of nature — lasts forever.

Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls

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